Will heating oil prices go down this winter?
Nobody knows next month's price, and Tankful does not predict it. Here is what we do know: how the prices oil suppliers publish have been moving, and which tax changes are already announced.
What prices are doing now
Typical 500-litre price, 13 Oct 2026
€839
Median of 26 county medians.
Over 4 weeks
+€24
From €815 on 15 Sept 2026 (+3.0%).
Over 12 weeks
+€170
From €669 on 21 Jul 2026 (+25.4%).
These are prices oil suppliers published on their websites, checked by Tankful. They are not quotes. A past fall is not a promise of another one.
Tankful's daily price record starts on 26 Jun 2026, so it can't yet show how prices behave across a full winter.
Tax changes already announced
- Budget 2027 carbon tax cut. The Budget on 6 Oct 2026 cut the carbon tax on home heating oil from €63.50 to €48.50 a tonne of CO2. Tankful estimates that takes about €21.55 off a 500-litre order, including VAT. Revenue has not yet published the new rate or a start date. Read what the carbon tax cut means for heating oil. Sources: Department of Finance, Budget 2027 Tax Policy Changes, 6 October 2026, Statement by Minister Harris on Budget 2027, 6 October 2026, Budget in Brief 2027 (carbon tax, page 16), 6 October 2026, Revenue Excise Duty Rates manual (kerosene at €48.50/t from 1 May 2023).
- 1 November 2026: the NORA levy is due to go from 0.1c back to 2c a litre. With VAT, that adds about 2.2c a litre, or about €11.00 on a 500-litre order.
Tax is only part of the price. World oil prices, the euro against the dollar and how busy local oil suppliers are all matter too. See how much of a heating oil bill is tax.
What you can do now
If your tank is low, order what you need now and compare local oil suppliers first. The gap between oil suppliers in one county is often bigger than a week's move in the market. If you have time, set a price alert and we will email you when prices in your county reach your target.
Questions about heating oil prices this winter
Will heating oil prices go down this winter?
Nobody can say for sure, and Tankful does not forecast prices. The typical 500-litre price in Tankful's records was €839 on 13 Oct 2026, up €170 (+25.4%) since 21 Jul 2026. Budget 2027 will cut the carbon tax on heating oil, but Revenue has not yet confirmed the start date.
Does Tankful predict heating oil prices?
No. Tankful shows the prices oil suppliers have published and how they have moved. World oil prices, the euro, tax and local competition all move the price, and none of them can be known in advance.
How much will the Budget 2027 carbon tax cut save on heating oil?
Budget 2027 cuts the carbon tax on kerosene from €63.50 to €48.50 a tonne of CO2. Tankful estimates that takes about €21.55 off a 500-litre order, including VAT. Revenue has not yet published the new rate table or a start date.
Where can I see a heating oil price chart for Ireland?
Tankful's price history page charts the typical 300, 500 and 1,000 litre price for Ireland and each county, every day since Tankful's record began.