When is the Best Time to Buy Heating Oil?
Like the stock market, heating oil prices fluctuate. But unlike stocks, there are predictable seasonal patterns you can use to your advantage.
The Seasonal Cycle
Supply and demand is the biggest driver of local price differences (excluding global crude oil shifts).
Summer (May - August)
Verdict: Usually the Best Time to Buy.
Demand is at rock bottom. Suppliers are quiet and often reduce their margins to secure sales. This is the ideal time to fill your tank completely.
Autumn (September - October)
Verdict: Good Time to Top Up.
As the weather cools, people start turning on their heating. Prices start to creep up, but usually haven't hit their winter peak. If you didn't fill up in summer, do it now before the first frost.
Winter (November - February)
Verdict: Most Expensive. Avoid if possible.
Demand is highest. Bad weather can disrupt deliveries, leading to supply crunches. Prices are typically at their annual peak. If you must buy, try to buy 500L rather than 300L to get a slightly better rate, but don't expect bargains.
Spring (March - April)
Verdict: Variable.
As demand tapers off, prices may start to soften, but it depends on how cold the spring is. Monitor the trends.
Global Factors
While seasonality is predictable, global events are not. Crude oil prices (Brent Crude) directly impact the price of Kerosene.
- Currency Exchange: Oil is traded in Dollars. If the Euro weakens against the Dollar, heating oil becomes more expensive in Ireland.
- Geopolitics: Conflict in oil-producing regions can cause sudden spikes.
How to Track Prices
You don't need to watch the stock market news. Tankful tracks local prices in Leinster hourly. We show you exactly what the average price is today.
If you see the trend line on our Trends Page dipping, it might be a good time to buy. If it's spiking, and you have enough oil to last a few weeks, it might be worth waiting to see if it settles.